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Bears-Redskins preview and prediction

Statistics are for geeks.

For 6 weeks, I’ve tried using stats to forecast the Bears performance against their upcoming opponent. But starting this week, I’m done over-analyzing things like how the Bears offense will perform against the 27th ranked run defense in the league. Or how the Bears defense will make minced meat out of the league’s 31st ranked running game.

So with Sunday’s game against the Redskins, let’s just ignore the fact that…

  • The Redskins defense gives up a league-worst 433 yards per game.
  • The Bears offense is the 4th worst in the league, averaging only 285 yards per game.
  • The Bears are converting 3rd downs at a putrid 17.6% success rate. If they’re fortunate enough to convert one on Sunday, it’d be their first in two weeks (They were 0 for 12 vs. the Seahawks).
  • The Bears offense has given up a league-worst 27 sacks.
  • Redskins’ 2nd year pass-rushing DE Brian Orakpo has 5 sacks.
  • The Bears have rushed for 77 yards or less in all but one of their six games.
  • Redskins QB Donovan McNabb is 4-1 in games vs. the Bears in his hometown of Chicago.
  • The Bears defense has allowed the 3rd fewest points per game in the league (16.2).


None of this crap matters when it comes to the Bears.

So rather than make a prognostication based on facts and figures, I’m going to rely on the Rex Factor. Yes, Rex Grossman is the Washington Redskins backup QB. While it’s doubtful he’ll see the field, I think his presence will draw the collective attention of Bears fans away from the actual game itself and upon him.

With Sideline Rex distracting the 60,000+ orange-and-blue clad Grabowskis, Donovan McNabb will do just enough to help his Redskins slip out of town with a 20-16 victory over the Bears.

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