Chicago Bears Draft Review 1.0: Picking Trubisky by the Numbers

By Bryan Dietzler

If you have been following any of the stories about quarterbacks in the 2017 NFL Draft I have been writing you will know that there was one top quarterback I didn’t cover.  That quarterback was Mitchell Trubisky.  Why did I barely say a word about him?  I didn’t because I felt that the Bears weren’t going to pick him.  It didn’t add up, it didn’t make sense, and it just didn’t seem likely.

I am a man, and I admit when I am wrong.  I was completely wrong about who the Bears would pick with their first-round selection and I was also wrong about what they would do to get him.  However, I do think, that many people were wrong on this one.

To recap, the Bears moved up from number three in the draft to number two, a spot held by the San Francisco 49ers.  They took the 49ers pick while giving San Francisco the third pick along with their third round pick in the draft (67th), a fourth round pick (111th) and a third round pick next season.  All of this to move up one spot to grab Trubisky.

The biggest question on everyone’s mind is why the Bears gave up what they did to get Trubisky.  They also wonder if he would have been there at number three. If you read some of the reporting, it’s been said that at least two teams were trying to move up to get Trubisky.  The Bears did what they felt they had to do to secure him and get him drafted.  They gave up more than they should have to stop the other teams from taking him away from them.

But did Chicago give up that much to get him?  Let’s think about it in terms of the trade value chart that is often used for trading picks in the NFL draft.  Here is the way that I have it broken down.

The 49ers pick at number two was worth 2,600 points.  The Bears pick at number three was worth 2,200 points.  Chicago needed to give San Francisco their pick, so that gave them 2,200 points, but they had to give up another 400 points to make it even.

Chicago’s third round pick at number 67 was worth 255 points.  Combine that with their number three overall, and that gave the package a value of 2,455 points.  The Bears still had to make up 145 points.

The Bears added one of their fourth round picks, the pick at 111, and that one is valued at 72 points. Add that in, and the Bears had 2,572 points for the trade.  That left them just 28 points shy of the 2,600 mark.

Perhaps, to help make up for the balance, the Bears decided to ship next year’s third rounder to San Francisco.  We don’t know what the value of that pick will be yet, but at its highest, it could be 265 points, and at its lowest, it could be 116 points.  So if the Bears had the high third round pick next year, they would have given the 49ers 2,837 points in value overpaying by 237.  If they had the lowest value third round pick, they would have overpaid by just 88 points at 2,688.  But the value of that pick won’t be known until early 2018.

So, the bottom line is the Bears may have overpaid for the move up, but maybe they had to in order to secure the pick and keep it from other teams.  Rumor has it that there were a couple of other teams trying to trade up to possibly get Trubisky.  The Bears wanted him bad enough they did whatever they could to ensure they got him.

I have heard that fans feel like the team got “taken” by the deal and at first, it appears as that is correct.  It looks like the Bears overpaid to move up one spot to get someone that could have been there at number three.  But if the rumors about other teams trying to come up to number two and get him are true then the Bears did well.  Whether they overpaid for the move, that will be determined next season.  It’s too early to make a judgment call on that now.

It’s also too early to tell just how good Trubisky will be.  He looks like he’s got a lot of skill, but he has some weaknesses that will need to be overcome.  Hopefully, he will be able to adapt to the NFL iin time.  Perhaps he will eventually be the franchise quarterback that management hoped he will be when they drafted him.

So there you go Bears fans, we now have a “franchise” quarterback.  He is ready to begin his ascent from a college quarterback who started just 13 games to a full-time NFL quarterback.  Sure, drafting him may still sting right now and it will for a while.  But if this works out, Bears fans will cast aside this disappointment and bask in the glow of success.

If this doesn’t work out, it means another regime change is coming.  If this fails, it can be assured that the coaching staff will get let go quickly.  And Ryan Pace will probably never be a general manager in the league again.

Bears fans should hope that this works out.  It’s either going to make the franchise great or sink to the bottom of the league for several more seasons.

Stay tuned for additional coverage of this and all the Bears picks made in the 2017 NFL Draft.

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4 Responses to “Chicago Bears Draft Review 1.0: Picking Trubisky by the Numbers”

  1. CHARLIE says:

    I hope things work out with Turbisky and I think they will I think tTurbisky will surprise a lot of you also PACE`S JOB IS SAFE FOX`S IS NOT

  2. Bryan says:

    Charlie:

    I hope things work out with Trubisky too. I think that he has an excellent shot at becoming the quarterback that the Bears need. I also think this pick is for “beyond Fox”. I think that there will be a new head coach perhaps as early as 2018 and this coach will one of Pace’s choosing.

    Here’s to an exciting future!

    Bryan

  3. Shane the drunk Fling says:

    What’s it been? Years… Oh… I’ve followed the bears for 30 plus years and all of a sudden I hate them. Boo hoo. Get over your shit. You don’t know any better than me and I better than you. Fuck it. We’re already the laughing stock. Let’s own it. Fuck everyone else. Trubisky? Only a few letters of cutler or tZACK. I’ve spent my entire life asking for prayers. God’s not listening he hates the bears. But I love them. And I’ll raise my kids as bears fans. I’ll be dead in 30 years. I’ll give half of that to trubisky

    • Bryan says:

      Hi,

      I think that anyone who has been a fan of the Bears since just after their Super Bowl victory over 30 years ago would understand what we, as fans, are going through. And despite the fact that they have perpetually up and down over the last 30 plus years, we still love them. They may not be at the top of the league but they will get back there again someday and I have faith that they will do that. We question their draft picks. We (they) question them when they drafted William Perry, a 300 plus pound defensive tackle out of Clemson. And what did he do? He was a worthwhile draft pick. It always looks bad to start because of the circumstances surrounding what was done. We also have people in our “ears” telling us how we should think. I have heard much more negative about the Bear’s moves than I have heard positive things. And it’s affecting a lot of people right now.

      Bears fans have a right to be mad, don’t get me wrong, but we should not lose our loyalty over a bunch of things that we perceive to be bad or incorrect. We should listen to ourselves and those people who have been true Bears fans for years. We know our team better than anyone else.
      I might be frustrated but I still love my Bears. It’s been almost 35 of being a fan, no way am I giving up on them now.

      Thank you,
      Bryan

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