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Chicago Bears Draft Review 1.0: Picking Trubisky by the Numbers

By Bryan Dietzler

If you have been following any of the stories about quarterbacks in the 2017 NFL Draft I have been writing you will know that there was one top quarterback I didn’t cover.  That quarterback was Mitchell Trubisky.  Why did I barely say a word about him?  I didn’t because I felt that the Bears weren’t going to pick him.  It didn’t add up, it didn’t make sense, and it just didn’t seem likely.

I am a man, and I admit when I am wrong.  I was completely wrong about who the Bears would pick with their first-round selection and I was also wrong about what they would do to get him.  However, I do think, that many people were wrong on this one.

To recap, the Bears moved up from number three in the draft to number two, a spot held by the San Francisco 49ers.  They took the 49ers pick while giving San Francisco the third pick along with their third round pick in the draft (67th), a fourth round pick (111th) and a third round pick next season.  All of this to move up one spot to grab Trubisky.

The biggest question on everyone’s mind is why the Bears gave up what they did to get Trubisky.  They also wonder if he would have been there at number three. If you read some of the reporting, it’s been said that at least two teams were trying to move up to get Trubisky.  The Bears did what they felt they had to do to secure him and get him drafted.  They gave up more than they should have to stop the other teams from taking him away from them.

But did Chicago give up that much to get him?  Let’s think about it in terms of the trade value chart that is often used for trading picks in the NFL draft.  Here is the way that I have it broken down.

The 49ers pick at number two was worth 2,600 points.  The Bears pick at number three was worth 2,200 points.  Chicago needed to give San Francisco their pick, so that gave them 2,200 points, but they had to give up another 400 points to make it even.

Chicago’s third round pick at number 67 was worth 255 points.  Combine that with their number three overall, and that gave the package a value of 2,455 points.  The Bears still had to make up 145 points.

The Bears added one of their fourth round picks, the pick at 111, and that one is valued at 72 points. Add that in, and the Bears had 2,572 points for the trade.  That left them just 28 points shy of the 2,600 mark.

Perhaps, to help make up for the balance, the Bears decided to ship next year’s third rounder to San Francisco.  We don’t know what the value of that pick will be yet, but at its highest, it could be 265 points, and at its lowest, it could be 116 points.  So if the Bears had the high third round pick next year, they would have given the 49ers 2,837 points in value overpaying by 237.  If they had the lowest value third round pick, they would have overpaid by just 88 points at 2,688.  But the value of that pick won’t be known until early 2018.

So, the bottom line is the Bears may have overpaid for the move up, but maybe they had to in order to secure the pick and keep it from other teams.  Rumor has it that there were a couple of other teams trying to trade up to possibly get Trubisky.  The Bears wanted him bad enough they did whatever they could to ensure they got him.

I have heard that fans feel like the team got “taken” by the deal and at first, it appears as that is correct.  It looks like the Bears overpaid to move up one spot to get someone that could have been there at number three.  But if the rumors about other teams trying to come up to number two and get him are true then the Bears did well.  Whether they overpaid for the move, that will be determined next season.  It’s too early to make a judgment call on that now.

It’s also too early to tell just how good Trubisky will be.  He looks like he’s got a lot of skill, but he has some weaknesses that will need to be overcome.  Hopefully, he will be able to adapt to the NFL iin time.  Perhaps he will eventually be the franchise quarterback that management hoped he will be when they drafted him.

So there you go Bears fans, we now have a “franchise” quarterback.  He is ready to begin his ascent from a college quarterback who started just 13 games to a full-time NFL quarterback.  Sure, drafting him may still sting right now and it will for a while.  But if this works out, Bears fans will cast aside this disappointment and bask in the glow of success.

If this doesn’t work out, it means another regime change is coming.  If this fails, it can be assured that the coaching staff will get let go quickly.  And Ryan Pace will probably never be a general manager in the league again.

Bears fans should hope that this works out.  It’s either going to make the franchise great or sink to the bottom of the league for several more seasons.

Stay tuned for additional coverage of this and all the Bears picks made in the 2017 NFL Draft.



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